The Philippines Court of Appeals in Manila has dealt another blow to the plot by Jan Robert Gustafsson’s criminal gang to cause mayhem for their former employer. In an order filed last week, the Court expanded a preliminary injunction preventing law enforcement officials from pursuing investigations based on bogus search warrants.

The search warrants were the basis for the November 2013 police raids on the offices of Bodog Asia, the company for which Gustafsson (pictured) worked until he was dismissed for incompetence earlier that year. A forensic audit uncovered evidence that Gustafsson and his co-conspirators had been embezzling from their employer, prompting Bodog Asia to commence legal proceedings against the thieves.

In response, Gustafsson knowingly provided legal authorities with false testimony to justify the raids he hoped would intimidate his former employers into dropping their pursuit of justice. This plan, like his others, failed miserably and Gustafsson and two associates – Sylvia De Guzman and Sherwin Quiambao – are currently dodging no-bail arrest warrants for qualified theft issued in October. A fourth conspirator, Edwin Rejano Erpe, was arrested earlier this month on related charges.

The Court of Appeals issued a preliminary injunction in August barring the judge, prosecutors and police associated with the original bogus warrants from pursuing investigations based on items seized during the raids on Bodog Asia’s offices. The expanded injunction bars all prosecutors concerned, including the Department of Justice, from “the further enforcement, implementation and conduct of all proceedings” relative to these warrants and “all items seized pursuant thereto.”

The expanded injunction follows the dismissal of many of the nuisance suits filed by Gustafsson’s gang with prosecutors in Quezon City and Makati, and effectively prevents the gang from throwing up any more legal Hail Mary’s to delay their day of reckoning while the injunction is in place.

Perjury charges are pending against the members of the gang who knowingly provided false testimony to the authorities. Libel charges are also in the works for Gustafsson, who made the mistake of repeating many of his falsehoods to Philippine media outlets during his ill-advised PR campaign last November.

Bodog Asia’s investigation into the gang’s antics is ongoing and further charges are likely against these and other members, including former Bodog Europe chief Patrik Selin, Jasmin Singh, Maria Arleen Aldaba, Anthony Arcilla, Sukhjap ‘Robbie’ Singh Grewal and others.

On June 4, rumors started spreading about a possible merger between Wynn and MGM. Wynn’s stock jumped from $102 to $109 that day, or 7%. Guess what? We’re back down to $102 again. MGM also jumped on the reported rumors. But now the stock is down below pre rumor level. I guess the rumor mill died down.

The really interesting thing about this particular rumor, however, is that the only source for it is Jim Cramer, who simply blurted out that there were “rumors” on his Mad Money show on CNBC that day. Then, Cramer’s site TheStreet published a piece highlighting the fact that Cramer had said there were rumors about a possible merger between Wynn and MGM, on the same day. TheStreet even highlighted the Wynn move as its “Move of the Day” with a little 57-second video ditty about it.

The story then made the rounds to sites like Zacks and The Motley Fool, with Zacks just citing “a rumor” with no source and Fool citing Cramer.

Even more interestingly, Wynn Resorts showed up on the Wall Street Journal’s selling on strength list for June 4^th, the day of the reported rumor, with a net negative outflow of $2.6M. Selling on strength means that while the stock was up, down tick volume was $2.6M heavier than uptick volume. Meaning, $2.6M more of shares were sold on a downtick than were bought on an uptick. $2.6M is not a very big number, but it shows that one or at most a few moderate-sized players with a few million dollars of Wynn stock to sell, did so by taking advantage of a heavy up day caused by rumors of a mega merger, and dumped shares below market, causing downticks.

Now, I have no moral problem with “fomenting” as Cramer likes to say, through rumors, as long as there is no outright fraud involved. Outright fraud would be something like announcing “Steve Wynn told me personally that he’s looking to merge with MGM” when Steve Wynn said no such thing. But saying “there are rumors” is more of a subjective statement. Anyone can start a rumor. Rumors don’t have to be true in order to exist qua rumors. That’s why saying that “there are rumors” is not fraud. Once you say it, there it is. The rumor exists. It’s now true that there are rumors, so there is no fraud in saying that there indeed, are rumors.

Fomenting is not just part of the stock market, but all markets through advertising any product at all. There is nothing wrong with it morally. You just have to know how to spot it. Advertise a cleaning product as the best ever and you make people want to buy it. Advertise a stock as about to rise very soon because of whatever reason and you make people want to buy it. But being a savvy consumer who knows what the real best cleaners are is more difficult. It is nevertheless the same principle as being a savvy investor who knows what the best stocks are and which are just hyped and rumored.

I don’t know the specific situation here, and I don’t know if Cramer is sharing what he knows, or at least thinks he knows. Maybe he is being honest. Maybe he really does know some inside information about a merger. But free advice is free. And evidence suggests, based on lack of any confirmatory reports, and Cramer’s own past statements about his own strategies, particularly about “moving a stock up, and then fading it,” (see 0:55 in the opening video link) that not all is what it seems:

There’s nothing about a Wynn MGM merger inherently that makes any sense. There is no evidence, besides Jim Cramer’s own statements and those sources citing those very statements, that anything at all is in the works.

The wider Chinese stock market has been very volatile in the last few weeks, and Bill Gross, the Bond King, has come out saying that China is his next short. If we are to compare Cramer to Groscs, Gross got ejected from Pimco after he began being bearish on bonds while heading the largest bond fund in the world. Talk about “fomenting” against your own interests. Gross was just being honest rather than fomenting, and he got fired for it. Technically he resigned before he was fired, but whatever. Now, unchained, he’s almost morbidly bearish on bonds.

Point being, if I had to take someone at his word, I’ll pick Gross, and he’s about to short China.

Wynn’s movement after Cramer’s reported rumor, first up 7% and then down 6.5% two days later, seems to have perfectly mimicked his “moving a stock up, and then fading it” strategy.

Don’t trust the rumors.

The Philippines Court of Appeals has dealt a body blow to Robert Gustafsson’s criminal conspiracy.

In November 2013, Manila police raided several business process outsourcing (BPO) companies that provided support services to Philippines-licensed online gambling operator Bodog Asia.

The search warrants were obtained using information provided by Gustafsson, the company’s ex-CEO, who claimed the operator was taking wagers from Philippines residents in violation of its gaming license.

The company, which claims Gustafsson was dismissed earlier that year for incompetence, flatly rejected the allegations. It requested and was granted a temporary restraining order preventing police, prosecutors and the judge who issued the warrant from pursuing any further legal action using the evidence seized during the raid.

On May 29, the Court of Appeals made that preliminary injunction permanent and said all evidence seized during the raids was inadmissible due to its status as “fruit of the poisonous tree.”

The Court acknowledged that interfering with police investigations is not a matter to be considered lightly, but exceptions must be made when the complaints that sparked these investigations “have absolutely no basis in fact and in law.”

NO, NO, NO
Straight off the top, the Court observes that Judge Zaldy B. Docena of the Regional Trial Court of Malabon City had “no territorial jurisdiction over the place where the alleged crime was committed.” Judge Docena also erred by listing two separate laws on the warrant, a ‘scattershot’ approach forbidden by the country’s 1987 Constitution.

The search warrant was also deficient due to its lack of specifics on the items to be seized during the raids. The Court found the warrant’s list of office equipment to be “so general and sweeping” that law enforcement went on “a roving commission to seize whatever items could be found in the premises.”

But the primary justification for upholding the injunction was the Court’s view that there’d been no proper determination of probable cause to justify the warrants. Lending credence to Bodog Asia’s claims regarding Gustafsson’s incompetence, the Court found his statement to Judge Docena “so vague that one cannot tell if he indeed had personal knowledge of the alleged criminal activities.”

As for Gustafsson’s allegation about locals wagering on Bodog Asia, the Court notes that Docena asked Gustafsson to show him this illegal website using the judge’s computer, but Gustafsson was unable to find the page.

WHO WANTS TO EARN P200,OOO?
The Court’s decision means Gustafsson has exposed himself to charges of perjury, which will be added to his already crowded legal file. One month before the 2013 raids, Bodog Asia launched legal proceedings against their former CEO after an audit turned up evidence of the theft of over $160,000 and the planned heist of millions more.

In October 2014, a no-bail arrest warrant was issued for Gustafsson on a charge of qualified theft. Similar warrants were issued for two similarly disgruntled ex-staffers Sylvia Bernadette de Guzman and Sherwin Quiambao. A P100,000 reward was offered for information leading to their arrest but the troublesome trio slipped out of the country shortly thereafter.

De Guzman is believed to be in Singapore and Quiambao was last seen in Canada. There have been rumored sightings of Gustafsson in Manila, which has prompted the powers that be to double the reward to P200,000 per suspect. Ads have been taken out in several major local dailies announcing the increase and a street team is plastering neighborhoods with the wanted notices to ensure maximum visibility.

ALL ABOARD
According to a statement given to the police by Edwin Erpe, a junior member of the gang who was arrested last November, De Guzman was the engine driving the gang’s plans. This wannabe Ma Barker once attempted to embezzle money from a corporate account and threatened to cut out the tongue of the alert bank exec who questioned the transaction’s validity.

De Guzman’s antics were on full display in new charges filed against her on April 30. De Guzman (pictured right, in her best pirate disguise) has been accused of the theft of a $200,000 speedboat her former employer kept at a boathouse in Batangas City.

In April 2014, the local caretaker was making his rounds when he discovered several unfamiliar men hitching the boat to their Ford Expedition. One of these men told the caretaker to pretend he’d never seen them and to say that the boat was already gone by the time he noticed. The man then flashed a supposed bill of sale but wouldn’t let the caretaker read it.

The caretaker attempted to take the man’s picture, but the man stopped him and asked why the caretaker was taking the side of a foreigner over a local. The caretaker went to summon security, during which time two of the vehicles legged it, leaving the boat behind.

The two confused men in the remaining vehicle told the resort’s security team that De Guzman had been in one of the vehicles that fled. The men, who cooperated fully with security, said De Guzman had claimed ownership of the boat and offered to sell it for P4,000,000 ($89,000).

Under Philippine law, because the would-be thieves forcibly broke into the boathouse and physically moved the boat outside, the charge of theft applies the same as if their plot had succeeded.

DUH, SHERWINNING!
To avoid his arrest warrant, Quiambao fled to Canada, where his parents reside. Despite the distance, he has continued the fight against his former employer in the Philippines.

Edwin Erpe’s statement revealed that it was Quiambao who convinced a Philippine woman to file rape and kidnap charges against Bodog brand founder Calvin Ayre. The woman later told police that she’d been coerced her into filing the complaint and the charges were ultimately dismissed for lack of evidence. Despite this turnaround, Sherwin has reportedly directed this same girl into making similar allegations about other prominent Philippine residents.

Quiambao hasn’t been lying low, posting social media shots of he and his wife Michelle hanging in exotic locales. Does she know where Quiambao got the money to pay for these trips? If so, hope she’s still smiling when she’s charged with being an accessory after the fact.

WHY THEY DID IT
Aside from good old-fashioned greed, Gustafsson’s gang stole to get money to fund their own online gambling startup and a payment processing company. The online gambling company never happened but the payment firm did.

Transact24 Philippines – not to be confused with the Hong Kong-based Transact 24 – was launched with the help of Karl Rosengren, who co-founded the original Hong Kong payment firm but was forced out by the other co-founder. Last August, Rosengren reportedly fired Gustafsson for reasons unknown (but we suspect Bodog Asia has a theory).

SAD LEGACY
Last month’s Court ruling was a big win for Bodog Asia and for everyone who believes law enforcement shouldn’t be a tool in the hands of disgruntled employees. Already facing theft charges, Gustafsson was desperate to change the narrative, so he led the judge down the garden path and here we are.

Gustafsson’s falsehoods were aimed at Bodog Asia, but they marked the start of a series of unwarranted raids on BPO companies doing business with other Philippines-licensed online gambling operators. William Hill, Kambi Sports Solutions, Ole777 and others have been visited in this manner since Gustafsson told his tall tales.

At its core, this is a story about grifters. They saw an angle so they played it and it worked well in the short term. But their luck ran out and the blowback will cost them dearly. The legal cloud hanging over Gustafsson, de Guzman and Quiambao’s heads will follow them for the rest of their lives.

The recent deportation of former Dafabet exec Wang Bo to face illegal gambling charges in China has reinforced the dangers of conducting online credit betting in Asia. ​

Wang fled China for the Philippines this February after local authorities began rounding up members of his illegal online credit betting operation. Following his prolonged and occasionally farcical efforts to sway Philippine immigration authorities to allow him to stay, Wang was escorted back to China this weekend to face his lumps.

Upon Wang’s return, Chinese media began publishing details on a related crackdown in Heilongjiang province involving the Philippines-based ‘Dafa 888′ group. The authorities claimed to have frozen RMB 230m (US $37m) belonging to the operation, which involved gamblers in over 10 provinces. Around 125 individuals connected with the ring have been detained.

The media reports prompted Dafabet’s parent company AsianBGE Ltd, a subsidiary of sports betting technology provider AsianLogic, to issue a statement denying any current connection to Wang, whom they say “severed all ties” with the company in 2012.

AsianLogic, which is owned by Hong Kong resident Tom Hall, claimed that its Dafabet brand was only cited in the Chinese media articles “to provide historical context.” AsianLogic went on to claim that the investigations in question were related to activities surrounding the 2014 FIFA World Cup, although China Radio International reported that at least two Dafabet sites were among those blocked in the current crackdown.

AsianLogic’s statement also claimed that none of the frozen bank accounts mentioned in the articles has no connection to the company, as it “does not operate in this manner.”

The ‘manner’ that AsianLogic referred to is credit betting, a common practice in Asian grey- and black-markets, where financing an online gambling account via credit card or bank transfer is problematic. Many Asian-facing betting sites utilize a network of agents on the ground to handle cash transactions, an inherently unreliable system that is both costly – due to commissions paid to these agents – and prone to interdiction by local authorities.

There are signs that credit betting is going to become even more difficult. As Beijing continues to staunch the flow of money high-rollers attempt to funnel to Macau casinos, they are casting an ever-widening net. Over the weekend, China News Service said police in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Hebei and Beijing had begun targeting agent networks on the ground in China.

China’s notorious Ministry of Public Security is reportedly overseeing this operation, which has been dubbed ‘Chain Break.’ Analysts at the Sanford Bernstein brokerage issued a note on Monday saying this agent network is believed to be handling over RMB 6b (US $1b) and that the crackdown is “targeting foreign casino activities.”

Given the Chinese state-run media’s full-court press regarding Wang’s return and the extent of the details provided on the related illegal online activities, it wouldn’t be a stretch to suggest that Chain Break’s scope could have grown to encompass illegal credit betting sites.

AsianLogic may claim to have no ties to credit betting operations but Beijing appears unconvinced, at least, in connection with the Dafabet brand.

The New York Giants have not fared well as a home underdog, which is a concern as they host the Dallas Cowboys in an NFC East rivalry game that involves playoff positioning. The Cowboys are 4-point favorites against the Giants with a 47.5-point total for Sunday night.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

Since 2013, the Eli Manning-led Giants are only 1-9 straight-up and 4-6 against the spread as a home underdog. Each team has produced recently, with the Cowboys 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the NFC whereas the Giants are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.

The Giants, who are 8-4 SU and 5-5-2 ATS, do have an opportunity to put up points against an 18th-ranked Cowboys defense which has generated a paltry 11 takeaways. Manning can make up for many deficiencies, but production has been hard to come by for slot WR Victor Cruz and rookie WR Sterling Shepard, leaving the Giants to force passes to Odell Beckham Jr.

Running the ball and pass protection are also trouble spots for the Giants, who are 2-7 SU in their last nine games against teams with winning records. New York is second-last in rushing. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who have only three more sacks than Dallas (26 to 23), overwhelmed Giants LT Ereck Flowers in Week 13.

The Cowboys are 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS. Since that one-point defeat against the Giants in Week 1, rookie QB Dak Prescott has become a much more accurate downfield passer. Prescott and WR Dez Bryant will need to be sharp, since the Giants have an strong cornerback tandem in rookie Eli Apple and high-risk, high-reward Janoris Jenkins. Veteran TE Jason Witten had his first career no-target game in Week 13, but typically performs well against the Giants.

The key matchup when Dallas has the ball will be in the interior of the line, namely C Travis Frederick and RG Zack Martin against Giants DT Olivier Vernon. Dallas is second in rushing and the Giants are fifth in rush defense, so NFL rushing leader Ezekiel Elliott will need to be ready for a grinding game. With DE Romeo Okwara in line to replace Jason Pierre-Paul (sports hernia surgery), it will be interesting to see what the Giants’ front seven does to hassle Prescott and keep him from scrambling.

The total has gone over in seven of the Cowboys’ last eight games against the Giants. The total has gone over in five of the Giants’ last six games at home after failing to cover in their most recent home game.

The post Week 14 Sunday night football betting preview appeared first on CalvinAyre.com.

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots face a persistent nemesis, the Baltimore Ravens, as they continue to adapt to life without dominant tight end Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots are listed as 7-point favorites against the Ravens with a 45-point total in the Monday Night Football matchup.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

The Patriots are 9-0 straight-up in their last nine games in Week 14 and 6-2 against the spread in their eight most recent games. Since the 2009 playoffs, Baltimore has gone 4-2-1 ATS against New England.

The Ravens are 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS, on the strength of wins against the spread in four of their last five games. While it’s true they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after consecutive ATS wins, the Ravens have tidied up their pass protection in recent weeks. Quarterback Joe Flacco, WR Steve Smith Sr., WR Mike Wallace and TE Dennis Pitta are very prolific when the pass blocking holds up.

New England’s defense, led by CB Malcolm Butler and MLB Dont’a Hightower, is solid at tackling and misses few assignments, but they do have one of the league’s lowest sack rates.

Relying on Terrance West, the Ravens are a dismal 28th in rushing and New England is 10th in fewest rushing yards allowed.

The Patriots, who are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS, will match Brady and their quick-strike passing attack against a No. 1-ranked Ravens defense. With Martellus Bennett replacing Gronkowski,  it might not be so easy for Brady to complete passes in the interior of the secondary, the area that Ravens SS Eric Weddle patrols.

With CB Jimmy Smith now healthy, the Ravens might rely on their Cover Two scheme and force Brady, slot WR Julian Edelman and emerging rookie WR Malcolm Mitchell to play a patient game.

With NT Brandon Williams and NT Michael Pierce clogging the middle to free up ILB Zach Orr, no team is able to rush effectively against Baltimore. How the Patriots deploy rugged LeGarrette Blount and slippery James White in the backfield will be interesting.

While it is a small sample, the Ravens are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games on Monday. The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Ravens’ last nine games in December. The total has gone UNDER in six of the Patriots’ last six games as a favorite of seven points or more.

The post Week 14 Monday night football betting preview appeared first on CalvinAyre.com.

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks are facing their largest point spread in three seasons as they take on the beleaguered Los Angeles Rams. Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

With the Rams installing Jim Fassel as interim coach after finally axing Jeff Fisher, the Seahawks are now listed as a 16-point favorite against Los Angeles with 39-point total in the Thursday Night Football matchup.

Since the start of Wilson’s career, the Seahawks are 17-1 straight-up and 10-7-1 against the spread when favored by at least 10 points.

Los Angeles, which is 4-9 SU and 4-8-1 ATS, has been a 16-point underdog only twice in the last 20 seasons. For what it is worth, the Rams did not cover either time. The Rams are dead last in points and yards per game and have had difficulty springing RB Todd Gurley into the open field. Seattle MLB Bobby Wagner is also one of the best run defenders in the league, so another long night for Gurley apparently beckons.

The Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Seahawks, but one overarching trend is that they are 0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games as the underdog. Rookie QB Jared Goff has struggled, but WR Tavon Austin in particular could exploit a Seahawks defense that has some vulnerable spots, particularly CB DeShawn Shead’s pedestrian speed and FS Steven Terrell’s inexperience.

Essentially, the point spread creates the question of whether the Seahawks, who are 8-4-1 SU and 6-6-1 ATS, will deliver a statement game after their embarrassing 38-10 road defeat in Green Bay during Week 14. Wilson had his worst game as a Seahawk, but on the whole Seattle is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six outings after losing as a favorite.

The Rams defense allows only 6.6 yards per pass but has only six interceptions and 24 sacks, so there might be an opportunity for Wilson to re-establish his rhythm with WR Doug Baldwin and TE Jimmy Graham. Facing DT Aaron Donald and DE Robert Quinn, who are perhaps the NFL’s best at stuffing the run, will also be a truer test of whether RB Thomas Rawls (173 yards in the past two games) is the solution to Seattle’s issues in the rushing phase. Beyond its defensive front four, Los Angeles struggles against the run.

The total has gone under in 18 of the Rams’ last 25 games. The total has gone under in seven of the Rams’ last nine games against the Seahawks. The total has gone over in five of the Seahawks’ last seven games with a closing total of 39.5 or less.

The post Week 15 Thursday night football betting preview appeared first on CalvinAyre.com.

History suggests Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys could break a three-game skid against the spread when they face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team which is on a five-game winning streak. Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

The Cowboys are listed as the seven-point favorite against the Buccaneers with a 47-point total in the Sunday Night Football matchup. Dallas is 6-0 straight-up and 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite of 6.5 points or more, as well as 18-6 SU in their last 24 home games after consecutive road games.

The Buccaneers, whose five-game roll includes wins against the Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks, are 8-5 SU and 8-5 ATS. Quarterback Jameis Winston and WR Mike Evans help furnish Tampa Bay with a much better passing game than that of the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants, whom Dallas held to a combined 25 points in its last two games. This is a major test for Winston, though, but for most of the season he’s been able to prop up a one-dimensional offense.

The disparity between the Bucs’ passing and running games could be even more pronounced this week. Led by OLB Sean Lee, the Cowboys have a fierce run defense. They can have lapses in pass coverage and might struggle to stop underrated TE Cameron Brate.

The Cowboys are 11-2 SU and 9-3-1 ATS. Their passing game has been ice-cold in recent weeks, with the rookie Prescott struggling to make reads and identify which defensive players are blitzing. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in turnovers and scoring defense since Week 10 and consistently gets pressure on the quarterback while using a four-man rush spearheaded by DE Robert Ayers.

Not having to blitz the linebackers as frequently means OLB Lavonte David and MLB Kwon Alexander can focus on wreaking havoc in both the passing and rushing phases.

That said, a reason that Dallas is a touchdown favorite is the expectation that their top-ranked offensive line will control the line of scrimmage against the Buccaneers’ below-average run defense. Ezekiel Elliott furnishes the Cowboys with one of the league’s best rushing attacks and the Bucs have struggled against teams with good ground games.

The total has gone under in nine of the Buccaneers’ last 11 games against the Cowboys. The total has gone under in four of the Cowboys’ last five games as a favorite.

The post Week 15 Sunday night football betting preview appeared first on CalvinAyre.com.

Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins need to continue their history of not faltering against sub-.500 teams in order to preserve their playoff hopes. Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

Washington is listed as a six-point favorite against the visiting Carolina Panthers with a 51-point total in the Monday Night Football matchup. Washington is 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games against teams with losing records while Carolina is 0-6 straight-up in their last six road games against teams with winning records.

Carolina, which is 5-8 SU and 4-7-2 ATS, is just playing out the string, so how focused Cam Newton and Co. will be is hard to predict. Newton has been resting his arm in practice after having an MRI on his right shoulder, but it’s doubtful he would not play. On paper, there is potential for the Panthers offense to be productive. Newton’s favorite receiver, Kelvin Benjamin, will likely occupy the attention of shutdown CB Josh Norman, but teams can pick on CB Bashaud Breeland and CB Kendall Fuller.

The Redskins allow 4.5 yards per rush (28th in the NFL), so Carolina should be able to create some lanes for veteran Jonathan Stewart. That said, the Panthers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine road games.

Washington, which is 7-5-1 SU and 9-4 ATS, is third in the NFL in yards per pass (8.2) and fewest sacks (18). Coincidentally, Carolina has yielded the third-most passing yards, so there is a strong likelihood Cousins and his receivers should thrive. The Panthers are thin in the secondary and they might face a pick-your-poison predicament when it comes to covering speedster DeSean Jackson and possession receivers Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon.

As much as this season has been a disaster for Carolina, the Panthers have maintained a strong run defense. Washington’s potential to be balanced on offense by establishing a ground game with RB Rob Kelley might depend on the health of C Spencer Long (concussion protocol) and LG Shawn Lauvao (ankle), who would be slated to line up against run-stuffers such as DT Kawann Short and DT Star Lotulei.

The total has gone over in the Panthers’ last five games as the underdog. The total has gone over in the Redskins’ last six games.

The post Week 15 Monday night football betting preview appeared first on CalvinAyre.com.

For only the third time in the Eli Manning era, the New York Giants are favored on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles. Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

The Giants are listed as three-point favorites against the Eagles with a 41.5-point total in the Thursday Night Football matchup. The Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of three points or fewer, but the Eagles are also in a rut in divisional games – 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games against NFC East teams.

The Giants, who are 10-4 SU and 7-5-2 ATS, will face some challenges when they have the ball on Thursday. New York’s offensive line often struggles to open running lanes, and while they have allowed just 21 sacks much of that stems from Manning’s quick release. The Eagles also have some marauding defenders such as DT Fletcher Cox, DE Brandon Graham and DE Vince Curry who can bring pressure from many angles.

Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has averaged 74.8 yards in five career games against Philadelphia. If Manning’s protection is strong, the Giants should be able to take advantage of the Eagles’ pass coverage. Philadelphia lacks depth at cornerback and allows 7.7 yards per pass, seventh-worst in the league.

 The spoiler-minded Eagles, who are 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS, are playing for pride as they try to build momentum for QB Carson Wentz’s second season. Elusive Darren Sproles is expected to play and complement primary RB Ryan Mathews, who had 128 yards against the Baltimore Ravens’ vaunted run defense in Week 15. The Giants have played the run well of late.

The main concern, offensively, about the Eagles is a lack of big-play capability in the passing game, whether that’s attributable to lack of talent or Wentz’s inexperience. The Giants’ trio of CB Eli Apple, CB Janoris Jenkins and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie should be able to limit Eagles WRs Jordan Matthews, Nelson Algohor and Dorial Green-Beckham. Tight end Zach Ertz has actually been the team’s best receiver over the past two games and could be a handful for SS Landon Collins.

The total has gone UNDER in the Giants’ last six games. The total has gone UNDER in five of the Eagles’ last six home games.

The post Week 16 Thursday night football betting preview appeared first on CalvinAyre.com.

The Kansas City Chiefs drag a couple of negative trends into their meeting with the desperate Denver Broncos on Christmas night. The Chiefs are listed as 3.5-point favorites against the Broncos with a 37.5-point total in the Sunday Night Football matchup.

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

Kansas City is 10-2 straight-up but 4-8 against the spread over its last 12 home games. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven visits to Kansas City.

Defending Super Bowl champion Denver, at 8-6 SU and ATS, is at risk of missing the playoffs. An offensive line which has allowed 40 sacks – and faces pass rushers such as DE Chris Jones and OLB Dee Ford on Sunday – and a 27th-ranked run game have held back the progress of first-year starting QB Trevor Siemian. The Broncos have 11 lost fumbles this season and Kansas City is +13 in takeaways, so that could work against Denver as well.

Kansas City’s defense is very stingy at home. To have any shot, the Broncos will need their vaunted D to keep the game close and give WR Emmanuel Sanders and WR Demaryius Thomas the chance to make impact plays in the fourth quarter.

Kansas City is 10-4 SU and 7-7 ATS, good for the fourth-best record in the NFL, but their performance sometimes leaves observers wanting more. The Broncos have the NFL’s best pass defense (5.8 yards per pass, only 10 TD passes allowed). Scoring opportunities are likely to be few and far between, so QB Alex Smith and primary targets such as TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill will have to finish drives.

Broncos OLB Von Miller (three sacks in the teams’ last matchup) will be a disruptive force at some point. Denver’s defensive line has regressed, though, and the unit has fallen to 16th in opponents’ yards per carry. The Chiefs have the capability to grind out yards with RB Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West.

The total has gone over in 11 of the Broncos’ last 14 games with a closing total of 38 points or less. The total has gone under in eight of the Chiefs’ last 10 games.

The post Week 16 Sunday night football betting preview appeared first on CalvinAyre.com.

The Dallas Cowboys‘ recent slump against the spread and the Detroit Lions’ resiliency makes their meeting more intriguing than the typical betting matchup with a touchdown favorite. The Cowboys are seven-point favorites against the Lions with a 44-point total for Monday night.

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

The Cowboys are on a 6-0 straight-up streak at home, but they are only 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with winning records. Conversely, the Lions are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games against teams with winning records.

Dallas has also failed to cover the posted spread in four consecutive games.

The unknowable with the Lions, who are 9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS, is how they react to the circumstances of a must-win game as they try to maintain sole possession of the NFC North lead. The offensive line in front of Stafford has struggled since losing C Travis Swanson, who has not been cleared to practice. When Stafford has time, he will be facing a merely adequate pass defense that allows 7.1 yards per attempt and has only eight interceptions.

Wide receiver Golden Tate’s elusiveness after the catch could bedevil Dallas’ secondary. The Lions’ chances will also get a boost if slippery RB Theo Riddick (wrist) is able to play.

The Cowboys, who are 12-2 SU and 9-4-1 ATS, can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win. Facing the Lions’ bend-don’t-break defense could work to the favor of QB Dak Prescott and league rushing leader Ezekiel Elliott, since their challenge might simply come down to consistently getting first downs. The Lions are in the middle of the pack, allowing 4.2 yards per carry (18th) and having only 24 sacks (29th).

Detroit’s best pass defender, CB Darius Slay (hamstring), could have limited reps if he even plays, which potentially means more room for WR Dez Bryant. Dallas’ inside receivers, TE Jason Witten and WR Cole Beasley, have favorable matchups.

The total has gone over in five of the Lions’ last six games against the Cowboys. The total has gone over in six of the Cowboys’ last eight games as home favorites.

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The Houston Texans (9-7) were supposed to be better than their current record after spending $72 million for quarterback Brock Osweiler in the offseason. After all, Houston had the same mark a year ago with Brian Hoyer under center before getting blown out 30-0 at home in the Wild Card round of the playoffs by the Kansas City Chiefs.

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

On Saturday, the Texans host the Oakland Raiders (12-4) as four-point home favorites rather than sitting as three-point underdogs like they were against the Chiefs last postseason. The big difference this time around for their opponent though is that the Raiders will be without starting quarterback Derek Carr, seemingly giving Houston an edge there.

However, Osweiler has been underwhelming at best, which is a major reason his team is +6600 to win Super Bowl LI after winning the AFC South again.

Oakland will be down to third-string rookie signal-caller Connor Cook because Carr is out and backup Matt McGloin is dealing with a shoulder injury. The Raiders are +7500 to win the Super Bowl and obviously had much higher expectations with Carr, as they are not nearly the same team offensively without him.

But the visiting team has gone 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the past four meetings, so Oakland does have that going in its favor despite being the underdog in this matchup.

In the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) will begin their quest for a third Super Bowl appearance in four years when they host the Detroit Lions (9-7) as eight-point home favorites on Saturday night. The Seahawks looked to be a top Super Bowl contender again early in the year but struggled a bit down the stretch, and they are +1200 to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy for the second time while the Lions are +7500 longshots.

Detroit also was a much better team before the final month of the regular season, dropping its last three games to go from the NFC North leader to a Wild Card when the Green Bay Packers won 31-24 at Ford Field in Week 17. The Lions have gone 3-1 ATS in the previous four meetings with Seattle though, covering the number and nearly pulling off the upset in a 13-10 loss there last season as 9.5-point road underdogs.

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The Green Bay Packers (10-6) and Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) met in the Super Bowl six years ago and played a thrilling game at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Could the Packers and Steelers each return to Texas next month and square off in Super Bowl LI at Houston’s NRG Stadium?

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

According to oddsmakers, that is a distinct possibility if both of them stay hot and continue their respective winning streaks this weekend.

The Packers used a six-game winning streak to win the NFC North, capped by a 31-24 road victory against the Detroit Lions last Sunday night that sealed the deal. They have risen to +725 to win the Super Bowl and host the New York Giants (11-5) late Sunday as 4.5-point favorites at Lambeau Field.

However, the Giants are listed at +1200 to win the Super Bowl and have enjoyed a lot of success recently versus Green Bay, winning three of the past four meetings and going 4-0-1 against the spread in the previous five. New York has won in its last two playoff trips to Lambeau.

Meanwhile, the Steelers have won seven in a row, equaling the New England Patriots (14-2) for the longest current winning streak in the NFL. They are +800 to win the Super Bowl and host the Miami Dolphins (10-6) earlier on Sunday as 10-point favorites at Heinz Field.

Pittsburgh won the AFC North by pulling away from the Baltimore Ravens late in the season, with a 31-27 comeback win over their division rivals on Christmas night giving them the lead for good. Led by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown, the Steelers have arguably the league’s best group of skill-position players heading into the postseason.

The Dolphins are +7500 longshots to win the Super Bowl and may have to keep continuing their run without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who injured his knee in a 26-23 home win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 14.

Backup Matt Moore has won two of his three starts since taking over, but he will be leading a Miami team in the postseason for the first time since 2008 and facing a Pittsburgh team that is 7-0 straight up and 5-1-1 against the spread in its last seven games as a favorite.

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If you considered the recent postseason success of the Seattle Seahawks, including two Super Bowl trips in the previous three years, you might be surprised to find out that they have lost eight straight games in the playoffs as road underdogs.

courtesy of OddsShark.com

The Atlanta Falcons will try to extend that streak to nine and win for just the second time in seven postseason games themselves on Saturday when they host the Seahawks as five-point home favorites in the first NFC Divisional Round matchup.

Atlanta beat out Seattle for the second seed in the conference and home-field advantage in Week 17 with a 38-32 win over the New Orleans Saints. Now the Falcons hope to cash in on that edge and end a six-game skid against the spread in the playoffs.

Atlanta is led by NFL MVP favorite Matt Ryan and wide receiver Julio Jones, who arguably needed the rest more than any other player in the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming off an impressive 26-6 rout of the Detroit Lions at home last week in the Wild Card Round behind a team playoff-record 161 rushing yards from running back Thomas Rawls.

Seattle has covered four of the past five road meetings with the Falcons and won 33-10 in the team’s last trip to the Georgia Dome four years ago after losing 30-28 in the 2013 Divisional Round 10 months earlier.

Later on Saturday, the New England Patriots  will continue their quest for their fifth Vince Lombardi Trophy as massive 16-point home favorites versus the Houston Texans, who lost 27-0 at Gillette Stadium in Week 3 of the regular season.

The big difference this time around working in New England’s favor is that quarterback Tom Brady will be back under center rather than rookie third-stringer Jacoby Brissett.

The Texans will look to build on last week’s 27-14 victory against the Oakland Raiders at home and continue their stellar defensive play away from home. Houston picked off Oakland rookie quarterback Connor Cook three times and sacked him three times as well while holding running back Latavius Murray to just 39 yards on the ground.

The Patriots have beaten the Texans five consecutive times and in seven of eight all-time, going 6-1 ATS in the last seven games between the teams dating back to 2006.

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The Kansas City Chiefs took advantage of a season-ending injury to Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr to win the AFC West and earn a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs.

courtesy of OddsShark.com

Now the Chiefs and head coach Andy Reid will try to pick up a much-needed home win in the postseason when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers as slim one-point favorites in Sunday’s Divisional Round matchup at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs were routed 43-14 as 3.5-point road underdogs in the first meeting with the Steelers in Week 4 and will need to play much better defensively in order to advance to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 1993.

But Reid does own impressive marks of 19-2 straight up and 15-6 against the spread during his career with an extra week off between games to prepare. He hopes Kansas City will be able to improve upon those trends and win for just the second time in 11 postseason games.

Pittsburgh is coming off a 30-12 victory against the Miami Dolphins in last week’s Wild Card Round and brings an NFL-best eight-game winning streak into the rematch. The Steelers will try to ride quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown yet again, as no opponents have been able to stop them lately, and they have won four of the past five meetings over the Chiefs overall.

In the second Divisional Round game on Sunday, the Green Bay Packers will attempt to stay hot as well when they visit the Dallas Cowboys as four-point road underdogs.

The Packers have won seven in a row to go along with a 6-1 ATS mark during that stretch, but they lost 30-16 to the Cowboys as 5.5-point home favorites in Week 6. The question is, how much has Green Bay improved since that loss?

While Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers could be without wide receiver Jordy Nelson due to a rib injury, he has been nothing short of spectacular over the last eight games with 22 touchdowns and no interceptions. That includes three consecutive games of four touchdown passes, capped by a 38-13 win over the New York Giants in last week’s Wild Card game.

Dallas is 2-2 since posting a franchise-best 11-game winning streak.

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The Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) have not been to the Super Bowl since 2011, while the New England Patriots (15-2) have played in two of the past five and split them as they get ready for their sixth straight AFC Championship Game appearance Sunday as six-point home favorites.

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

While the Steelers have not enjoyed much success versus the Patriots lately, they are hoping to change that and play for a seventh Vince Lombardi Trophy by pulling off the upset at Gillette Stadium.

Pittsburgh is riding an NFL-best nine-game winning streak into Foxborough while New England has won eight in a row, showing that the two best teams in the AFC are indeed playing for the conference title.

The Steelers hosted the Patriots in Week 7 of the regular season and lost 27-16 as seven-point home underdogs, but they did not have starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger under center because of a knee injury.

Roethlisberger’s presence is obviously a big factor as a two-time Super Bowl champion, and he remains the youngest signal-caller to ever win the big game. His team has lost seven of 10 in the series since he was drafted, going 3-6-1 against the spread.

For New England, four-time Super Bowl champ Tom Brady missed the first four games due to a suspension for his role in the Deflategate scandal two years ago, but he has led the team to a 12-1 record straight up (11-2 ATS) since his return.

Brady’s ability to play with a chip on his shoulder has rubbed off on his teammates as well, with reserves Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett performing well in his absence and leading the Patriots to a 3-1 mark SU and ATS. Running back LeGarrette Blount also set a career-high with 1,161 yards and scored a franchise-record 18 rushing touchdowns.

The key to this matchup is whether or not New England can limit Roethlisberger’s two offensive weapons in running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown. While everyone talks about the Patriots offensively, their defense is very underrated, and taking away even one of Pittsburgh’s top threats would have a huge impact on the outcome.

The Steelers managed to advance past the Kansas City Chiefs on the road without scoring a touchdown, but they will probably need at least three to win at New England and make it to their ninth Super Bowl.

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Oddsmakers believe Sunday’s NFC Championship Game between the fourth-seeded Green Bay Packers (12-6) and second-seeded Atlanta Falcons (12-5) will be the highest-scoring in NFL history, setting a record total of 61 that has already risen to 61.5 and could close even higher before kickoff.

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

The Falcons are listed as four-point home favorites and may look to prevent that scenario from happening though in an effort to cool off the red-hot Packers and earn their second Super Bowl appearance ever.

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, a two-time NFL MVP, has been a man on fire over the past nine weeks, throwing 24 touchdown passes and only one interception during that stretch. His counterpart Matt Ryan – the favorite to win league MVP honors for the first time this year – has thrown 22 touchdowns and three picks in his last nine games, which is nearly as good.

Put Rodgers and Ryan together, and it is no wonder the total on this year’s NFC Championship Game is so high, especially when you consider that the last two meetings between them have averaged 72.5 points.

Offensively, Atlanta would be smart to rely more on its strong running game with Devonta Freeman (1,079 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns) and Tevin Coleman (520 and eight) arguably the best two-back tandem in the NFL.

Keeping Rodgers off the field and limiting the number of possessions for both teams will be imperative for the chances of the Falcons making it to Houston for Super Bowl LI.

The Packers were led on the ground by converted wide receiver Ty Montgomery and his 457 rushing yards while Rodgers was second on the team with 369, nine more than Eddie Lacy.

Lacy’s season-ending ankle injury that has kept him off the field since Green Bay’s 30-16 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6 of the regular season only made Rodgers work harder, as the signal-caller was the difference along with kicker Mason Crosby in helping win the rematch with Dallas 34-31 as five-point road underdogs last week for their eighth consecutive victory.

Rodgers and Crosby will need to make even more big plays at Atlanta if they are going to win for the fifth time in six meetings and see the visiting team improve to 11-1 against the spread in the series dating back to 2002.

Last year, the Carolina Panthers routed the Arizona Cardinals 49-15 in the third-highest scoring NFC Championship Game ever. The San Francisco 49ers beat the Cowboys 38-28 in the highest-scoring NFC Championship Game back in 1995.

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The New England Patriots overcame losing quarterback Tom Brady for the first four games of the 2016 regular season, going 3-1 straight up and against the spread. The Patriots have gone 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS since Brady’s return – the best in the NFL during that stretch – prompting oddsmakers to open them as three-point favorites in Super Bowl 51 over the Atlanta Falcons.

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

New England is making its record ninth appearance in the big game and has earned a split in the team’s previous eight trips, going just 1-4 ATS in the last five. Meanwhile, Atlanta is headed to the Super Bowl for only the second time, losing to John Elway and the Denver Broncos 34-19 in the second of their back-to-back titles following the 1998 season.

The Falcons closed as 7.5-point underdogs versus the Broncos, and they are 3-8 SU and ATS as underdogs in the playoffs dating back to 1991, losing five in a row.

However, the Patriots have not fared well in the role of Super Bowl favorite recently, failing to cover four straight under that scenario despite winning two of those games. Their last six Super Bowl appearances have all been close, as each of them were decided by four points or less, including the two losses to the New York Giants.

The key storyline in this Super Bowl 51 matchup centers around the two quarterbacks, with Brady squaring off against Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, who is the frontrunner to be named NFL MVP for the first time in his career. Brady has won that award twice in his illustrious career but did not win the Super Bowl either season, claiming the Super Bowl honor three times in New England’s four wins (Deion Branch won the other time).

No regular-season MVP has won the Super Bowl in the same season since Kurt Warner of the St. Louis Rams after his breakthrough 1999 campaign, something for bettors to consider.

How those two signal-callers perform will ultimately determine not only who wins the Super Bowl but also whether the record-breaking total goes over or under. The over has cashed in eight straight games for the Falcons along with six of the last seven for the Patriots when playing teams with winning records, which is obviously the case here.

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In the first 50 Super Bowls, quarterbacks ended up being named Most Valuable Player of the big game 27 times (54 percent), with running backs and wide receivers tied for second at six a piece (12 percent).

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

With those numbers obviously heavily weighted toward signal-callers and the two most well-known players in Super Bowl 51 playing that position, it is no surprise to see that Tom Brady of the New England Patriots and Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons are favored to win the award this Sunday in Houston.

Brady has won Super Bowl MVP three times previously in the four title games the Patriots have won, making him the top choice on the betting board at +120 (bet $100 to win $120). He will be attempting to become the first quarterback to win five Super Bowls.

Meanwhile, Ryan is playing in his first Super Bowl for the Falcons and will do so after he is expected to win regular-season MVP honors for the first time on Saturday. Ryan is the +200 second choice to win Super Bowl MVP and would be the first player since Kurt Warner of the St. Louis Rams to win both awards following the 1999 season.

Just about everyone knows about the quarterbacks though, so what are the chances of their teammates being named Super Bowl MVP instead? Two of the last three Super Bowl MVPs have been defensive players, with Von Miller of the Denver Broncos earning the award last year by making regular-season MVP Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers look mortal.

Atlanta linebacker Vic Beasley led the NFL in sacks during the regular season with 15.5, two more than Miller. However, Beasley has yet to register one in the playoffs and could be a huge factor and a nice sleeper pick at +5000. 

Bettors should also not forget about New England cornerback Malcolm Butler after he essentially won Super Bowl XLIX with his game-saving interception of Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson in the final minutes.

Butler may have been named MVP had it not been for Brady’s monster performance in leading the Patriots back with 328 yards and four touchdowns, including two in the fourth quarter. Butler is listed as +6600 and could be the difference in keeping Ryan from beating his team.

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